Plan to spend 1 hour minutes on Drift

1. Take drift quiz at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/ridley/tutorials/Random_events_in_population_genetics_quiz1.asp
2. 50 rats from a large outbred population living aboard of large cruise boat are left on a Pacific island for some reason. The island resources allow only 50 adult rats to survive (population will not grow). Ten mutations are present in single copy each in these 50 rats. After very long time...
   1. STANDARD What is probability that particular mutation will be fixed (reach frequency of 1.0)?
   2. MEDIUM What is probability that at least one of these mutations will be fixed (reach frequency of 1.0)?
   3. MEDIUM What is probability that two or more of these mutations will be fixed?
   4. MEDIUM What is chance that none of these mutations will be fixed?
   5. STANDARD What is average time before a mutation get fixed?
   6. STANDARD What is average time before a mutation get lost?
3. A genetically isolated populations was founded by 230 people. Number of people in subsequent generations were 400, 700, 1500, 3000, 6000, 12000 and currently population comprises 20000 people.
   1. STANDARD What is a chance that an allele which was present in one chromosome in founder generation is still present in current population?
   2. STANDARD What is a chance that an allele which was present in 5 chromosomes in founder generation (1%) is lost?
   3. STANDARD What is a chance that an allele which was present in 23 chromosomes in founder generation (5%) is lost?
   4. MEDIUM What initial frequency (in founders) gives an allele a high (more or equal to 95%) chance to stay in current population?
   5. Read breifly the paper by Pardo et al., and compare your results.
   6. MEDIUM If allele was present at frequency of 0.01 (1%) at the ORIGINAL population where the founders came from, what are the chances that it will be present at current population of the genetic isolate?